Party expectations in England: May 2011.

This is a piece of research on the local elections in May. I have looked at five councils in each of nine regions in England.

I have concluded the number of holds, gains and losses expected by the parties [all of them] in those councils at this stage in the parliamentary cycle and with current [approximate] opinion poll results.

If the parties do better or worse than my projections I will be able to report back in the days after the results are announced.

The councils are not representative - just interesting; some that I would have wished to have used did not present their data in an appropriate fashion whilst others have had local boundary changes.

North East England

[Hartlepool, Newcastle, North Tyneside, Redcar and Cleveland, South Tyneside ]

Conservatives Hold 10 Gain 0 Lose 11

Labour Hold 59 Gain 23 Lose 0

LibDems Hold 25 Gain 0 Lose 6

Ind Hold 4 Gain 0 Lose 6

Too close to call: 4 seats

Yorkshire

[Bradford, Kirklees, Ryedale, Scarborough, Sheffield]

Conservatives Hold 42 Gain 7 Lose 10

Labour Hold 36 Gain 15 Lose 0

LibDems Hold 23 Gain 0 Lose 18

Ind Hold 21 Gain 5 Lose 0

Greens Hold 5 Gain 3 Lose 1

Others Hold 2 Gain 0 Lose 1

Too close to call: 2 seats

North West

[Blackburn & Darwen, Lancaster, Liverpool, Oldham, Sefton]

Conservatives Hold 14 Gain 4 Lose 11

Labour Hold 52 Gain 22 Lose 1

LibDems Hold 21 Gain 0 Lose 15

Ind Hold 14 Gain 4 Lose 4

Green Hold 13 Gain 1 Lose 0

Other Hold 1 Gain 0 Lose 0

Too close to call: 2 seats

The West Midlands, East Midlands, East, South West, South, and South East are to follow.

Bear in mind, some of these figures relate to whole council elections whilst others refer to elections of a third of the council.