Turnout wins and loses elections for the Conservatives

I have been looking at the votes cast in every general election from 1945 until 2010 in an attempt to define patterns which may be useful for predicting future results.

I want to concentrate on two that emerge from the table below.

On each occasion that the Conservative Party failed to poll above its average turnout it lost the election. This happened in 1945, 1950, 1966, Oct 1974, 1997, 2001 and 2005. In 2010 it once again polled below its average and whilst being the largest party failed to receive an absolute majority.

When the Conservatives polled above average it formed an absolute majority in 1951, 1955, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1983, 1992 and 1997. In 1964 the Tories polled above average but lost the election to a paper thin Labour majority. In Feb 1974 it once again polled above average but Edward Heath was forced from office as labour polled less but finished with 4 more seats.

Labour's fortunes have been more mixed. When it polled above average it won six elections - those in 1945, 1950, 1964, 1966, Feb 1974 and 1997 - yet lost four - those in 1951, 1955, 1959 and 1970. When it polled below average it lost four - those in 1979, 1983, 1987 and 1992 - yet won three - those in October 1974, 2001 and 2005. In 2010 it polled below average and was the second party and main opposition to the coalition government.

The second point deals with the question of whether the third party in its various guises dips into the same voting pool as Labour/New Labour.

From the 1983 general election onward Labour and the third party have been fishing from the same voter pool - when Labour's % increases the Liberal [etc.] % falls and when Labour's falls there is an increase in third party %, [shown as z in the table below.] From 1945 until 1979 the picture is more mixed.

Table below [courtesy of Eoin Clarke, The Green Benches] shows the general election results in raw figures for the three main parties with the increase or decrease in % vote from the previous election.

Click on the table to increase size.