Party expectations in England: May 2011. Part Three

South West

[Bristol, North Devon, Plymouth, Taunton Dene, Tewkesbury]

Conservatives Hold 73 Gain 23 Lose 5

Labour Hold 10 Gain 6 Lose 0

LibDem Hold 25 Gain 0 Lose 27

Ind Hold 7 Gain 2 Lose 0

Green Hold 0 Gain 1 Lose 0

Too close to call: 5 seats

South

[Bournemouth, Poole, Southampton, Winchester, Worthing]

Conservatives Hold 85 Gain 15 Lose 4

Labour Hold 9 Gain 9 Lose 0

LibDems Hold 15 Gain 0 Lose 20

Ind Hold 4 Gain 0 Lose 0

Too close to call: 3 seats

Lack of information to make a judgement 3: seats

South East

[Brighton & Hove, Runnymede, Shepway, Watford, Wokingham]

Conservative Hold 82 Gain 8 Lose 9

Labour Hold 14 Gain 10 Lose 0

LibDem Hold 6 Gain 0 Lose 12

Ind Hold 4 Gain 0 Lose 0

Green Hold 13 Gain 3 Lose 0

Too close to call: 4 seats

This completes the list of party expectations of holds, gains and losses.

It is my intention to report on how the parties succeeded or failed in the week following the May local elections.

Party expectations in England: May 2011. Part Two

West Midlands

[Birmingham, Lichfield, Telford, Warwick, Wolverhampton]

Conservatives Hold 82 Gain 11 Lose 32

Labour Hold 61 Gain 38 Lose 0

LibDems Hold 9 Gain 0 Lose 16

Ind Hold 9 Gain 0 Lose 1

Others Hold 1 Gain 0 Lose 0

Too close to call: 5 seats

East Midlands

[Broxtowe, Charnwood, Chesterfield, Gedling, Kettering]

Conservatives Hold 63 Gain 7 Lose 39

Labour Hold 47 Gain 66 Lose 0

LibDems Hold 40 Gain 0 Lose 32

Ind Hold 2 Gain 0 Lose 1

Other Hold 0 Gain 0 Lose 1

Too close to call: 2 seats

East

[Boston, Colchester, Lincoln, Luton, Peterborough]

Conservatives Hold 27 Gain 2 Lose 12

Labour Hold 37 Gain 12 Lose 0

LibDems Hold 18 Gain 0 Lose 6

Ind Hold 30 Gain 3 Lose 0

Green Hold 0 Gain 1 Lose 0

Other Hold 1 Gain 0 Lose 0

Too close to call: 1 seat

See previous post for caveats.

Party expectations in England: May 2011.

This is a piece of research on the local elections in May. I have looked at five councils in each of nine regions in England.

I have concluded the number of holds, gains and losses expected by the parties [all of them] in those councils at this stage in the parliamentary cycle and with current [approximate] opinion poll results.

If the parties do better or worse than my projections I will be able to report back in the days after the results are announced.

The councils are not representative - just interesting; some that I would have wished to have used did not present their data in an appropriate fashion whilst others have had local boundary changes.

North East England

[Hartlepool, Newcastle, North Tyneside, Redcar and Cleveland, South Tyneside ]

Conservatives Hold 10 Gain 0 Lose 11

Labour Hold 59 Gain 23 Lose 0

LibDems Hold 25 Gain 0 Lose 6

Ind Hold 4 Gain 0 Lose 6

Too close to call: 4 seats

Yorkshire

[Bradford, Kirklees, Ryedale, Scarborough, Sheffield]

Conservatives Hold 42 Gain 7 Lose 10

Labour Hold 36 Gain 15 Lose 0

LibDems Hold 23 Gain 0 Lose 18

Ind Hold 21 Gain 5 Lose 0

Greens Hold 5 Gain 3 Lose 1

Others Hold 2 Gain 0 Lose 1

Too close to call: 2 seats

North West

[Blackburn & Darwen, Lancaster, Liverpool, Oldham, Sefton]

Conservatives Hold 14 Gain 4 Lose 11

Labour Hold 52 Gain 22 Lose 1

LibDems Hold 21 Gain 0 Lose 15

Ind Hold 14 Gain 4 Lose 4

Green Hold 13 Gain 1 Lose 0

Other Hold 1 Gain 0 Lose 0

Too close to call: 2 seats

The West Midlands, East Midlands, East, South West, South, and South East are to follow.

Bear in mind, some of these figures relate to whole council elections whilst others refer to elections of a third of the council.